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☆ We have more insights as to where the economy is headed — and it's not good
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we're looking at how the latest GDP data has shifted the expectations of where the economy is headed. Now, the economy will need some type of event (see: bubble popping) for rate cuts to become an option anytime soon, Miskin said. Energy price shocks could bring the world economy to a "vulnerable moment," chief economist Indermit Gill warned.

Persons: —, TikTok, they're, you'd, Jia Feng, It'll, Insider's Madison Hoff, It's, Jerome Powell, Anna Moneymaker, BI's Filip De Mott, Jamie Dimon, Matt Miskin, Miskin, Mark Zuckerberg, C, Cox, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Goldman Sachs, Guess what's, Indermit Gill, Alphabet's, Redmond, Tyler Le, Doug McMillon, execs, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Reserve, stagflation, JPMorgan, Wall Street, John Hancock Investment Management, Galatioto Sports Partners, Bank, Google, Big Tech, Microsoft, Health, Linkedin, YouTube, ExxonMobil Locations: Chevron, New York, London

☆ Middle East escalation could trigger energy shock that fuels inflation, World Bank warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The outbreak of a major conflict in the Middle East could trigger an energy shock that pushes oil prices above $100 a barrel, fuels inflation and results in higher interest rates for longer, the World Bank warned Thursday. The governments in Jerusalem and Tehran appear to have decided against escalation after exchanging direct strikes on each other's territory for the first time. Oil prices have pulled back nearly 4% from recent highs as investors have discounted the probability of a wider war in the Middle East. The World Bank, however, cautioned that the situation in the region remains uncertain. "The world is at a vulnerable moment: a major energy shock could undermine much of the progress in reducing inflation over the past two years," said World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill.

Persons: Israel, Indermit Gill Organizations: World Bank, Bank Locations: Isfahan Refinery, Iran, Isfahan, Jerusalem, Tehran

☆ High inflation could be here to stay as commodity prices spike again after a 2-year decline, World Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

High inflation will stay for longer as commodity prices rallied again after falling for two years, World Bank Group says. The bank expects global inflation to jump by a solid percentage point by 2024 due to the flip-flop oil prices driven by geopolitical risks. But this sluggish decline will buoy commodity prices around 38% higher than pre-COVID averages, offering little relief for inflation-weary economies. The World Bank warned that a significant disruption could propel oil prices beyond $100 per barrel, hiking global inflation by almost a full percentage point in 2024. That fear of lower growth and high inflation was on display in the US on Thursday, as first-quarter GDP came in much lower than expected even as consumer prices remained high in the quarter.

Persons: —, wanes, Indermit Gill, Ayhan Kose Organizations: World Bank, Service, World Bank Group, Bank Locations: Israel, Iran, Ukraine, Russia

WASHINGTON (AP) — The World Bank reported Monday that oil prices could be pushed into “uncharted waters” if the violence between Israel and Hamas intensifies, which could result in increased food prices worldwide. The World Bank report simulates three scenarios for the global oil supply in the event of a small, medium or large disruption. But during a “medium disruption” — equivalent to the disruptions experienced during the Iraq war — the global oil supply would decline by 3 million to 5 million barrels per day, driving oil prices up possibly by 35%. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, said higher oil prices will inevitably result in higher food prices. Overall, oil prices have risen about 6% since the start of the conflict.

Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu, Indermit Gill, ” Gill, Ayhan Kose, Kose, —, Janet Yellen, Biden, ”, Fatih Birol Organizations: WASHINGTON, World Bank, Hamas, Israel, Bank, Bloomberg, ” International Energy Agency Locations: Israel, Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Ukraine, U.S

☆ Oil prices are falling even as Israel steps up its war on Hamas. A spike could still happen
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Olesya Dmitracova | Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 1.1% to $89 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the US benchmark, dropped 1.3% to trade at $84 a barrel by 7.51 a.m. The World Bank said Monday that a ratcheting up in the fighting in Gaza could push global commodity markets, including oil markets, into “uncharted waters,” and laid out three scenarios under which oil prices could surge. In that instance, the level of disruption would be comparable to that caused by the Arab oil embargo in 1973. The World Bank said a smaller disruption, equivalent to that resulting from the Libyan civil war in 2011, could send oil prices to $103 a barrel. Prices for Brent have risen 5.7% since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, killing more than 1,400 people, mostly civilians.

Persons: Brent, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown, ”, Germany —, ” Indermit Gill, Benjamin Netanyahu, ” Israel, Daniel Hagari, Jake Sullivan, Ebrahim Raisi, — Rob North Organizations: London CNN, West Texas, Hargreaves, Bank, Hamas, Sunday, CBS Locations: Gaza, Germany, Ukraine, Iraq, Israel, Israeli, Iran, Lebanese, Tehran

☆ Middle East War Could Cause Oil Price Shock, World Bank Warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Alan Rappeport | More About Alan Rappeport | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

A major escalation of the war between Israel and Hamas — one that spilled over into a broader Middle East conflict — could send oil prices surging as much as 75 percent, the World Bank warned on Monday. Energy prices have remained largely contained since Hamas invaded Israel on Oct. 7. They said that if higher oil prices are sustained, however, that would lead to higher prices for food, industrial metals and gold. The United States and Europe have been trying to keep global oil prices from spiking in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Western nations introduced a price cap on Russia’s energy exports, a move aimed at limiting Moscow’s oil revenues while ensuring oil supply continued to flow.

Persons: ” Indermit Gill, Biden, Janet L, Yellen, ” Organizations: Hamas, World Bank, Bank, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, New York Times, nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Bloomberg Locations: Israel, Ukraine, Iraq, Libya, United States, Europe, Gulf of Mexico

An internal World Bank memo seen by Reuters cited a "devastating loss of life, destruction and heavy toll on civilians being incurred on both sides," but voiced support for the lender's work in Gaza and the West Bank. The World Bank and our development partners have long worked to support the poorest, most vulnerable people in the West Bank and Gaza, and we remain committed to building the foundations for a more stable and sustainable future." The Oct. 9-15 annual meetings in Marrakech are expected to focus heavily on increasing resources for the IMF and the World Bank, both potentially contentious moves. World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill told Reuters that he worried the violence could overshadow important discussions at the IMF-World Bank meetings about sovereign debt, mediocre growth prospects and the big setback for development caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. On Sunday night, Georgieva participated in a "friendly" soccer match with World Bank President Ajay Banga and members of Morocco's Atlas Lions club attended by children from damaged mountain villages.

Persons: Anna Bjerde, Indermit Gill, It's, Eric LeCompte, LeCompte, Gill, Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva, Ajay Banga, Andrea Shalal, David Lawder, Jon Boyle, Bernadette Baum, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Bank, International Monetary Fund, Reuters, West Bank, World Bank, IMF, Jubilee USA, Morocco's Atlas Lions, Thomson Locations: MARRAKECH, Morocco, Israel, Gaza, Marrakech, Russia, Ukraine

Higher rates and overhangs from this year's banking crisis will drastically slow economic growth for the biggest global economies, the World Bank said Tuesday. U.S. GDP growth is expected to decelerate in 2024 to 0.8% as high interest rates further weigh on growth. The bank estimates overall global growth will decelerate to 2.1% in 2023, down from 3.1% in 2022. However, World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill said excluding China, growth in developing economies would be less than 3%. This marks "one of the weakest growth rates in the last five decades," Gill told reporters Tuesday.

Persons: Indermit Gill, Gill Organizations: World Bank Locations: Japan, U.S, China

☆ World Bank cuts 2024 global growth forecast as rate hikes bite but lifts 2023 outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Real global GDP is set to climb 2.1% this year, the World Bank said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report. The development lender cut its 2024 global growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.7% in January, citing the lagged effects of central bank monetary tightening and more restrictive credit conditions that were reducing business and residential investment. These factors will slow growth further in the second half of 2023 and into 2024, but the bank released a new 2025 global growth forecast of 3.0%. The bank, however, halved its previous 2024 U.S. growth forecast to 0.8%, and cut China's forecast by 0.4 percentage point to 4.6%. This would likely cut 2024 growth by nearly half to just 1.3% - the slowest pace in 30 years outside of the 2009 and 2020 recessions.

Persons: Indermit Gill, Gill, David Lawder, Edwina Gibbs, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Bank, Real, World Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, COVID, .

☆ World Bank set to launch more robust, transparent business climate rankings
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

WASHINGTON, May 1 (Reuters) - The World Bank will announce on Monday a new methodology for assessing the business climate in up to 180 countries after embarrassing revelations of data irregularities and favoritism toward China forced it to cancel the "Doing Business" rankings two years ago. "Business Ready improves upon and replaces the World Bank Group’s earlier Doing Business project. It reflects a more balanced and transparent approach toward evaluating a country’s business and investment climate," the bank said in a statement. "The main thing that went wrong was the data integrity of Doing Business was compromised," Norman Loayza, director of the World Bank's Indicators Group, which leads the project, told Reuters. But World Bank officials were still debating whether to revive the business climate rankings that were at the heart of the "Doing Business" controversy or produce an overall index, Loayza said, with a decision expected prior to the first report.

☆ World Bank Chief Economist Gill calls for new approaches to address 'debt crisis'
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) - World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill is calling for new approaches to address the mounting debt crisis facing many countries, including steps to factor domestic borrowing into assessment of a country's debt sustainability. Only Chad has reached a debt relief deal with creditors - and it does not include an actual reduction in debt. "Debt levels are already starting to hurt prospects, getting them into the wrong kind of spiral," he said ahead of a World Bank seminar on debt on Wednesday. The Common Framework should be replaced, he said, in the strongest terms used by a World Bank official. He said a new sovereign debt roundtable set up to address challenges in the debt relief process brought in debtor nations and private sector players, but achieved only modest results.

☆ World Bank warns of 'lost decade' in global growth without bold policy shifts
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But concerted efforts to boost investment in sustainable sectors, cut trade costs, leverage growth in services, and expand labor force participation could boost potential GDP growth by up to 0.7 percentage point to 2.9%, the report said. The average GDP growth rate is a sort of "speed limit" for the global economy, charting the maximum long-term rate at which it can grow without sparking excess inflation. Low investment will also slow growth in developing economies, with their average GDP growth dropping to 4% for the rest of the 2020s, from 5% in 2011-2021 and 6% from 2000-2010. To change the trajectory, policymakers should prioritize taming inflation, ensuring financial-sector stability and reducing debt, while promoting climate-friendly investments that could add 0.3 percentage point to annual potential growth. Expanding exports of digital services could result in big productivity gains, while raising labor force participation rates for women and others could raise global potential growth rates by as much as 0.2 percentage point a year by 2030.

☆ Visits to Zambia by Yellen, IMF reflect concern over stalled debt talks
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Frustrated by the delays, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva arrived for separate visits in Zambia on Sunday. Both see a new sovereign debt roundtable - introduced late last year - as a way to make progress on long-stalled debt restructuring processes. Yellen told Reuters en route to Zambia she supported the roundtable as a forum for discussing general principles of debt relief. Yellen, however, noted rates were nowhere near those seen under Volcker and inflation was not out of control. "We're in a higher interest rate environment, and that's something that's linked to the strong dollar, and weaker currencies for many emerging markets, but also Japan and other countries," Yellen said.

☆ World Bank to discuss in October replacement for 'Doing Business' reports
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The World Bank's board will discuss plans next month for replacing the bank's flagship "Doing Business" rankings that were canceled in September 2021 after an external report found data irregularities, World Bank President David Malpass said. "The World Bank is very involved in trying to encourage private sector development in countries," he said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe World Bank in February said it is working on a new approach, tentatively dubbed the "Business Enabling Environment" project, that will help countries improve their business environment and attract more investment. The bank scrapped the annual "Doing Business" rankings one year ago, saying internal audits and an external investigation had raised "ethical matters, including the conduct of former Board officials, as well as current and/or former Bank staff." Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Stephen CoatesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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